This paper formalizes the idea that more hedging instruments may destabilize markets when traders are heterogeneous and adapt their behavior according to experience based reinforcement learning. We investigate three different economic settings, a simple mean-variance asset pricing model, a...

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...

This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...

We consider the effect of adaptive model selection and regularization by agents on price volatility and market stability in a simple agent-based model of a financial market. The agents base their trading behavior on forecasts of future returns, which they update adaptively and asynchronously...

In this presentation, we analyze the explanatory (in-sample) and predictive (out-of-sample) importance of some of the best known market microstructural features. Our conclusions are drawn over the entire universe of the 87 most liquid futures worldwide, covering all asset classes, going back...

How does private information get incorporated into option prices? To study this question, I develop a non-linear, noisy rational expectations equilibrium model with asymmetric information and a full menu of call and put options available for trading. The model allows for an arbitrary...

We consider a market economy where two rational agents are able to learn the distribution of future events. In this context, we study whether moving away from the standard Bayesian belief updating, in the sense of under-reaction to some degree to new information, may be strategically convenient...

This paper studies the impact of information processing and rational learning about economic fundamentals on the level and timing of risk premium in the cross-section of firms. Learning helps explain the level of the value premium, and why the term structure of risk premium is increasing for...

This paper tries to draw on the relative merits of both the jump risk models and the long-run risk models with a linkage established by Bayesian learning, in an attempt to improve both asset pricing approaches in producing a better mechanism for understanding asset prices regularities.Rather...

We examine the effects of estimation risk and Bayesian learning on equilibrium asset prices when there is uncertainty about both the first and second moments of consumption and dividend growth rates. For the 1891-2007 period, our model generates a sizable average annual equity premium,...