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Strategic Observational Learning
Migrow, Dimitri - 2023
We study learning by privately informed forward-looking agents in a simple repeated-action setting of social learning. Under a symmetric signal structure, forward-looking agents behave myopically for any degrees of patience. Myopic equilibrium is unique in the class of symmetric threshold...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014263855
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Learning to forecast and cyclical behavior of output and inflation
Adam, Klaus - 2003
This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with … consistent with rational expectations once learning is complete. When past performance governs the choice of forecast model …, agents may prefer to use the inconsistent forecast model, which generates an equilibrium where forecasts are inefficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765344
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Learning and Forecasts about Option Returns through the Volatility Risk Premium
Bernales, Alejandro - 2019
We use learning in an equilibrium model to explain the puzzling predictive power of the volatility risk premium (VRP) for option returns. In the model, a representative agent follows a rational Bayesian learning process in an economy under incomplete information with the objective of pricing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892623
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Learning to Forecast Price
Friedman, Daniel; Kelley, Hugh - 1998
. The 99 subjects each forecast in 480 trials with feedback after each trial. Learning is tracked for each subject fitting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216374
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Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output And Inflation
Adam, Klaus - 2004
This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with … consistent with rational expectations once learning is complete. When past performance governs the choice of forecast model …, agents may prefer to use the inconsistent forecast model, which generates an equilibrium where forecasts are inefficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014124809
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Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation
Adam, Klaus - 2004
This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with … consistent with rational expectations once learning is complete. When past performance governs the choice of forecast model …, agents may prefer to use the inconsistent forecast model, which generates an equilibrium where forecasts are inefficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014070196
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Empirical calibration of adaptive learning
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2015
Adaptive learning introduces persistence in the evolution of agents' beliefs over time. For applied purposes this is a convenient feature to help explain why economies present sluggish adjustments towards equilibrium. The pace of learning is directly determined by the gain parameter, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316387
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A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
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Learning to Forecast the Hard Way -- Evidence from German Reunification
Triebs, Thomas - 2020
Do firms learn to forecast future business conditions after major structural changes to the economy? How long does it … distribution of market states, to test a Bayesian learning framework. As predicted, we find that Eastern firms initially forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857100
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Public statistics and private experience : varying feedback information in a take-or-pass game
Danz, David; Huck, Steffen; Jehiel, Philippe - 2015
We study how subjects in an experiment use different forms of public information about their opponents' past behavior. In the absence of public information, subjects appear to use rather detailed statistics summarizing their private experiences. If they have additional public information, they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437784