We show that in weakly identified models (1) the posterior mode will not be a consistent estimator of the true parameter vector, (2) the posterior distribution will not be Gaussian even asymptotically, and (3) Bayesian credible sets and frequentist confidence sets will not coincide...

Quadratic functions are often used in regression to infer the existence of an extremum in a relationship although tests of the location of the extremum are rarely performed. We investigate the construction of the following confidence intervals: Delta, Fieller, estimated first derivative,...

We provide a new asymptotic analysis of model selection procedure that compares likelihoods of two candidate diffusion models. Our asymptotic analysis relies on two dimensional asymptotic expansions with shrinking sampling interval Δ and increasing sampling span T, and clarifies the different...

Standard tests for the rank of cointegration of a vector autoregressive process present distributions that are affected by the presence of deterministic trends. We consider the recent approach of Demetrescu et al. (2009) who recommend testing a composite null. We assess this methodology in the...

This paper proposes likelihood-based procedures for determining the number of cointegrating vectors in the presence of constraints on the cointegration rank. The tests can be applied when a priori information suggests a lower bound on the number of common stochastic trends in the system. The...