We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...

Departures from an economic equilibrium should be mean reverting. The deviations are often assumed to be integrated of order zero but this is too restrictive. It is sufficient that the shocks are integrated of an order less than one, i.e. they may be fractionally integrated. A fractionally...

Three tests for zero restrictions on regression coefficients that are known to be nonnegative are considered: the classical F test, the likelihood ratio test, and a one-sided t test in a particular direction. Critical values for the likelihood ratio test are given for the cases of two and three...

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate parameters and latent stochastic processes in the asymmetric stochastic volatility (SV) model, in which the Box-Cox transformation of the squared volatility follows an autoregressive Gaussian distribution and the...

We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...

In this paper, we use a maximal invariant likelihood (MIL) to construct two likelihood ratio (LR) tests. The first involves testing for the inclusion of a non-linear regressor and the second involves testing of a linear regressor against the alternative of a non-linear regressor. We report the...

We investigate the behavior of various standard and modified F, likelihood ratio (LR), and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests in linear homoskedastic regressions, adapting an alternative asymptotic framework in which the number of regressors and possibly restrictions grows proportionately to the...

We suggest improved tests for cointegration rank in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and develop asymptotic distribution theory and local power results. The tests are (quasi-)likelihood ratio tests based on a Gaussian likelihood, but as usual the asymptotic results do not require normally...

Observational studies are widely used to evaluate the effect of treatment when it is not feasible to conduct controlled experiment. This article considers the use of parametric analyses for estimating the causal treatment effect. The proposed approach is an alternative to the widely used...