The usual bankruptcy prediction models are based on single-period data from firms. These models ignore the fact that the characteristics of firms change through time, and thus they may suffer from a loss of predictive power. In recent years, a discrete-time parametric hazard model has been...

In this paper we propose a very flexible estimator in the context of truncated regression that does not require parametric assumptions. To do this, we adapt the theory of local maximum likelihood estimation. We provide the asymptotic results and illustrate the performance of our estimator on...

We build a time varying DSGE model with financial frictions in order to evaluate changes in the responses of the macroeconomy to financial friction shocks. Using US data, we find that the transmission of the financial friction shock to economic variables, such as output growth, has not changed...

DSGE models have recently received considerable attention in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. They are usually estimated using Bayesian methods, which require the computation of the likelihood function under the assumption that the parameters of the model remain fixed throughout the...

We build a time varying DSGE model with financial frictions in order to evaluate changes in the responses of the macroeconomy to financial friction shocks. Using US data, we find that the transmission of the financial friction shock to economic variables, such as output growth, has not changed...

DSGE models have recently received considerable attention in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. They are usually estimated using Bayesian methods, which require the computation of the likelihood function under the assumption that the parameters of the model remain fixed throughout the...