While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health...

We study the effect of the COVID-19 economic lockdown on electoral outcomes using data on municipal elections in Italy. We implement a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the variation across municipalities in the share of inactive workers due to the economic lockdown introduced by...

The goal of this paper is to study the impact of the lockdown policy on voting behaviour, during the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on France, where a differential lockdown was implemented across departments, based on the local diffusion of the disease. In particular, the country has been divided...

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on international trade varies along several dimensions, including the type of product, the size of firm and over time. In this note, I provide evidence of systematic variation in the trade response to the pandemic along another, previously unexplored...

This paper examines the impact of COVID‐19 lockdowns on exports by Chinese cities. We use city‐level export data at a monthly frequency from January 2018 through April 2020. Differences‐in‐differences estimates suggest cities in lockdown experienced a ceteris paribus 34 percentage points...

We study how the political cost of enforcing a lockdown in response to the COVID- 19 outbreak relates to citizens' propensity for altruistic punishment in Italy, the early epicenter of the pandemic. Approval for the government's management of the crisis decreases with the amount of the penalties...