Survey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data nvironment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005), we studied the properties of a large...

We propose an integrated treatment of the problems of optimal monetary and fiscal policy, for an economy in which prices are sticky and the only available sources of government revenue are distorting taxes. Our linear-quadratic approach allows us to nest both conventional analyses of optimal...

Abstract When evaluating point estimators by means of general loss functions, the expected loss is not always minimal, similar to the case of mean-biased estimators, whose mean squared error can be reduced by accounting for the mean-bias. Depending on the loss function, the socalled Lehmann-bias...

The trade-off between price stability and output stabilization is in the centre of monetary policy-making. This trade-off enters many macroeconomic models as the central bank is assumed to minimize some loss function consisting of inflation deviations and output deviations from some specific...

We derive the Bayes estimator of vectors of structural VAR impulse responses under a range of alternative loss functions. We also derive joint credible regions for vectors of impulse responses as the lowest posterior risk region under the same loss functions. We show that conventional impulse...

The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has witnessed that house prices may have a profound effect on the economy. A key question for researchers and policymakers is what can be learnt from forecasts of changes in house prices. We use survey data from the WSJ forecast poll to analyze this question....

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125,2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss...

Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some...

This paper develops a multi-period extension of the Lucas (1972) overlapping generations "island" model with endogenous monetary policy (based on the minimization of a loss function over inflation and output deviations) and stochastic realization of the "allocation" of the young people across...

This paper analyses the monetary policy of a central bank in a simple deterministic and continuous dynamic non-linear New-Keynesian model with an active central bank conducting monetary policy within inflation targeting framework. To meet this purpose, first we derive two differential equations...