We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA model; 2) AR model estimated by the Kalman filter; 3) model that explains Macedonian GDP as a function of the foreign demand; 4) small structural model that links GDP components...

Macroeconomists have been concerned with the structure of business cycle fluctuations and their sources for a long time. In a highly integrated and globalized world, the study of co-movement, or integration, is important because the results of the study on emerging countries could help...

This paper focuses on investigating the determinants of lending rates and interest rate spreads in Macedonia. In order to quantify the effect of various factors on lending rates and interest rate spreads during the 2001-2009 period, we use panel estimation techniques on a sample of commercial...

Most of the emerging European countries, including Republic of Macedonia, are faced with greater or smaller current account deficits, which raise the concern about their sustainability in the long run. This working paper examines the sustainability of the Macedonian current account deficit using...

This paper investigates the existence of any systematic relationship between preliminary estimates and subsequent revisions of GDP growth rates in Macedonia. Accordingly, we use various statistical tools for testing the "news" and "noise" hypotheses and empirically assess if GDP data revisions...

This paper estimates the unrecorded economic activity and employment in Macedonia during 1998-2013. We model the unrecorded economic activity as an unobserved process that depends on tax "burden", business regulations and quality of governance, and affects cash in circulation, foreign currency...

Surplus liquidity in the banking system changes the monetary transmission mechanism, reducing the effectiveness of the traditional instrument, the interest rate. In this paper we examine the real effects of several monetary-policy instruments in Macedonia, an economy characterized by surplus...

In the analysis of public and external debt sustainability the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia is actively using the IMF's Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) framework. The aim of our analysis is to improve the analytical power of the IMF's DSA framework, in the case of Macedonia....

This paper presents the main findings of a survey on wage and price formation of firms in Macedonia conducted in the first half of 2014. The main objective was to identify some relevant characteristics about the dynamics of wages and prices in Macedonia, clarifying the relationship between them,...

This paper analyses the effects of loan supply, as well as aggregate demand, aggregate supply and monetary policy shocks between 1998 and 2014 in Macedonia using a structural Vector Auto Regression with sign restrictions and Bayesian estimation. The main results indicate that loan supply shocks...