Showing 1 - 10 of 2,456
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012267415
Purpose – We use a large and rich data set consisting of over 123,000 single-family houses sold in Switzerland between 2005 and 2017 to investigate the accuracy and volatility of different methods for estimating and updating hedonic valuation models.Design/methodology/approach – We apply six...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976945
Economists typically make simplifying assumptions to make the solution and estimation of their highly complex models feasible. These simplifications include approximating the true nonlinear dynamics of the model, disregarding aggregate uncertainty or assuming that all agents are identical. While...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013479448
Extending the popular HAR model with additional information channels to forecast realized volatility of WTI futures prices, we show that machine learning generated forecasts provide better forecasting quality and that portfolios which are constructed with these forecasts outperform their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284478
I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports' priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014317128
The increasing importance of online distribution channels is paralleled by a rising interest in gaining insights into the customer journey and browsing behavior. We evaluate several machine learning methods (latent Dirichlet allocation, correlated topic model, structural topic model, replicated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501273
Enhanced machine learning methods provide an encouraging alternative to forecast asset prices by extending or generalizing the possible model specifications compared to conventional linear regression methods. Even if enhanced methods of machine learning in the literature often lead to better...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014503903
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we evaluate the responses to the questions on inflation expectations in the World Economic Survey for sixteen inflation targeting countries. Second, we compare inflation expectation forecasts across countries by using a two-step approach that selects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141912
We conduct a lottery experiment to assess the predictive importance of simple choice process metrics (SCPMs) in forecasting risky 50/50 gambling decisions using different types of machine learning algorithms as well as traditional choice modeling approaches. The SCPMs are recorded during a fixed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794509
This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Our text data is drawn from fifteen popular European newspapers, that collectively represent the four largest Euro area economies, and are machine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819030