This paper surveys and motivates the reasons for incorporating explicit long run of supply features into applied estimated macro economic models. It defines some basic stability conditions for such models and illustrates elements of long run considerations with reference to a small (22 equation)...

We investigate the role of economic transparency within the framework of one of Townsend's models of 'forecasting the forecasts of others.' The equilibrium has the property that 'higher order beliefs' are coordinated into a finite-dimensional setup that is amenable to address monetary policy...

This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specic̄ation of the Italian...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...