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Banking crises and recessions : what can leading indicators tell us?
Corder, Matthew; Weale, Martin - 2011
is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional …It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there … predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously observed interdependence. Inclusion of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009348639
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Economic Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Aastveit, Knut Are - 2013
This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We consider several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction effects with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073109
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Filtering German Economic Conditions from a Large Dataset : The New DIW Economic Barometer
Viefers, Paul - 2014
This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046441
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Konjunktur deutlich abgekühlt : politische Risiken hoch
Döhrn, Roland; Holtemöller, Oliver; Kooths, Stefan; … - In: Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 99 (2019) 4, pp. 262-266
Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich seit Mitte des Jahres 2018 merklich abgekühlt. Der langjährige Aufschwung ist …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997122
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Early Warning Indicators for the German Banking System : A Macroprudential Analysis
Jahn, Nadya - 2016
-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988812
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OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis : a post mortem
Pain, Nigel; Lewis, Christine; Dang, Thai Thanh; Jin, Yosuke - 2014
This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
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The Impact of Permanent Energy Price Shocks on the UK Economy
Harrison, Richard - 2011
This paper outlines the properties of one of the models used at the Bank of England for analyzing the impact of energy prices on the UK economy. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model that includes a variety of channels through which energy prices affect demand and supply. On the demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122035
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Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring : Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions
Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2019
The authors sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, they focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906127
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A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections
Koutsogeorgopoulou, Vassiliki - 2000
This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections — both “current year” and “year ahead” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444113
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Asian development outlook forecast accuracy 2007-2016
Ferrarini, Benno - 2019
This is done in relation to the benchmark of World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections by the International Monetary Fund. Amid much heterogeneity across countries and years, it has been found that ADO and WEO projections overlap quite closely. Both are inaccurate, especially during crisis years,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011955528