We develop a multivariate dynamic term structure model, which takes into account the nonlinear (time-varying) relation between interest rates and the state of the economy. In contrast to the classical term structure literature, in which nonlinearities are captured by increasing the number of...

Recent macro-finance papers have documented the importance of adding information from macro variables in order to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance of bond yields. This paper aims at investigating the reasons for this success. We use Diebold and Li’s dynamic version of the Nelson...

We propose an empirical approach to determine the various economic sources driving the US yield curve. We allow the conditional dynamics of the yield at different maturities to change in reaction to past information coming from several relevant predictor variables. We consider both endogenous,...

We propose a simple but effective estimation procedure to extract the level and the volatility dynamics of a latent macroeconomic factor from a panel of observable indicators. Our approach is based on a multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic exact factor model that can take into account the...

While macroeconomic variables have been used extensively to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium and build models to explain it, relatively little attention has been paid to the technical stock market indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by studying the...

In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term structure VAR model (ATSM VAR) and principal component model (PC) in Turkey. We also investigate the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have...