Analyses and checks the annual forecasts produced each autumn from four prominent UK economic modelling organizations. Compares these forecasts with those of three Bayesian vector‐autoregressive models. Examines the accuracy for each set of forecasts up to four years ahead and for different...

Cogley and Sargent provide us with a very useful tool for empirical macroeconomics: a Gibbs sampler for the estimation of VARs with drifting coefficients and volatilities. The authors apply the tool to a VAR with three variables-inflation, unemployment, and the nominal interest rate-and two...

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which agents use a Bayesian rule to learn about the state of monetary policy. Monetary policy follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime shifts. The following results are obtained. First, the author's policy...