This paper develops a Spatial Vector Auto-Regressive (SpVAR) model that takes into account both the time and the spatial dimensions of economic shocks. We apply this framework to analyze the propagation through space and time of macroeconomic (inflation, output gap and interest rate) shocks in...

Uncertainty about monetary policy associated with uncertainty in interest rate is an important determinant of economic decisions. Due to the dominant position of the US economy on global financial markets, in addition to countries' own uncertainties, uncertainty related to the monetary policy of...

In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of...

The authors solve the IS puzzle for the G7 countries. They find that five of the G7 countries have the expected significant negative relationship between the output gap and the realrate gap; the time series of the remaining two show material deviation from expected IScurve behavior. The authors...

This paper proposes a new nonparametric test for conditional independence, which is based on the comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance. The test is easy to implement because it does not involve a weighting function in the test statistic, and it can be applied in...

In this paper we estimate an encompassing Macro-Finance model allowing for time variation in the equilibrium real rate, mispricing and learning dynamics. The encompassing model specification incorporates (i) a small-scale (semi-) structural New-Keynesian model, (ii) flexible price of risk...

I estimate a term structure model of Treasury yields where information about macroeconomic conditions is dispersed: traders form beliefs by combining prices with idiosyncratic signals about fundamentals. Econometrically, yields and inflation forecasts identify traders' information. Despite...