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It is shown how to construct an arbitrage-free short rate model under uncertainty about the drift and the volatility. The uncertainty is represented by a set of priors, which naturally leads to a G-Brownian motion. Within this framework, it is shown how to characterize the whole term structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011891263
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391307
The present paper considers a class of general equilibrium economics when the primitive uncertainty model features uncertainty about continuous-time volatility. This requires a set of mutually singular priors, which do not share the same null sets. For this setting we introduce an appropriate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212527
We show how to set up a forward rate model in the presence of volatility uncertainty by using the theory of G … equations and two market prices of risk, respectively, uncertainty. Furthermore, we examine the connection to short rate models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009895
This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is related to uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from González et al. (2005) is applied with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438928
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This paper extends the procedure developed by Jurado et al. (2015) to allow the estimation of measures of uncertainty that can be attributed to specific structural shocks. This enables researchers to investigate the "origin" of a change in overall macroeconomic uncertainty. To demonstrate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895010
regularities by developing a new firmbased trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547934
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