We show that an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with variable capital utilization and mild increasing returns-to-scale is able to generate qualitatively as well as quantitatively realistic aggregate fluctuations driven by news shocks to two formulations of future...

This paper formally compares the fit of various versions of the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty, relying on a simple Bayesian empirical framework. The models differ in the degree of households' heterogeneity, with a focus on the role of preferences. For every specification,...

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

This paper develops a stock-flow consistent macrodynamic model in which firms' and banks' desired margins of safety play a central role in macroeconomic performance. The model incorporates an active banking sector and pays particular attention to the leverage of both firms and banks. It is shown...

The quantum macroeconomics theory is formulated for the first time, assuming that the business cycle has the discrete-time oscillations spectrum in analogy with the electronics excitations discrete-time spectrum in the Bohr's atom model in the quantum physics. The quantum macroeconomics theory...

In this paper we present an overview of theoretical and empirical contributions exploring the inter-linkages between financial factors and real economic activity. We first revisit the main theoretical approaches that allow financial frictions to be embedded into general equilibrium models, and...

This chapter puts forward a manual for how to setup and solve a continuous time model that allows to analyze endogenous (1) level and risk dynamics. The latter includes (2) tail risk and crisis probability as well as (3) the Volatility Paradox. Concepts such as (4) illiquidity and liquidity...

We use a macroeconomic euro area model with a bank sector to study the pro-cyclical effect of the capital regulation, focusing on the extra pro-cyclicality induced by Basel II over Basel I. Our results suggest that this incremental effect is modest. We also find that regulators could offset the...

The DSGE models are based on hypotheses that have the effect of excluding the possibility of severe financial and economic crises with the consequent policy implications going in the laissez-faire direction. The hypothesized unique and stable equilibrium in combination with rational expectations...

The 2007/8 financial crisis has reignited the debate about austerity economics and revealed that it remains a highly contested, yet poorly understood idea. This article locates the debate in its historical context, tracing it from the early 18th and 19th century Classical debates, which focused...