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Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of its models. As a consequence, the estimates...
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We propose a novel interpretation and formalization of Kahneman and Tversky's findings in the Linda experiment which implies that subjects are rational in the sense of Muth's hypothesis and provides an approach to specifying rational assessment of uncertainty in macroeconomic models....
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I distinguish two types of macroeconomic models. The first type are top-down models in which some or all agents are capable of understanding the whole picture and use this superior information to determine their optimal plans. The second type are bottom-up models in which all agents experience...
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and the traditional adaptive model. -- Expectations ; heuristics ; beliefs ; mental models ; macroeconomic experiment …
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I distinguish two types of macroeconomic models. The first type are top-down models in which some or all agents are capable of understanding the whole picture and use this superior information to determine their optimal plans. The second type are bottom-up models in which all agents experience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272346
individuals use simple rules of thumb (heuristics) to forecast the future inflation and output gap. We compare this model with the …
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