The geometrical convergence of the Gibbs sampler for simulating a probability distribution inRdis proved. The distribution has a density which is a bounded perturbation of a log-concave function and satisfies some growth conditions. The analysis is based on a representation of the Gibbs sampler...

The welfare caseload evolves through a process of flows onto and off of welfare that can be described with a Markov Chain model. Using formal results for Markov models, this paper examines the dynamic properties of the welfare caseload. In particular, the authors examine steady states, the speed...

The dichotomous characterization of the business cycle in recessions and expansions has been central in the literature over the last fifty years. However, there are various reasons to question the adequacy of this dichotomous approach for our understanding of business cycle dynamics, as well as...