The geometrical convergence of the Gibbs sampler for simulating a probability distribution inRdis proved. The distribution has a density which is a bounded perturbation of a log-concave function and satisfies some growth conditions. The analysis is based on a representation of the Gibbs sampler...

The dichotomous characterization of the business cycle in recessions and expansions has been central in the literature over the last fifty years. However, there are various reasons to question the adequacy of this dichotomous approach for our understanding of business cycle dynamics, as well as...

This paper compares two approaches to analyzing longitudinal discrete-time binary outcomes. Dynamic binary response models focus on state occupancy and typically specify low-order Markovian state dependence. Multi-spell duration models focus on transitions between states and typically allow for...