Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

In a market with symmetric information about fundamentals, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and FX markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class of...

The aim of this paper is to establish the link between the high frequency dynamics of spot exchange rates and developments in the macroeconomy. To do so, I first present a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination that bridges the gap between existing microstructure and traditional...

We provide an overview of micro-based research using models of currency trading set in a partial equilibrium setting, and in the general equilibrium setting of modern macroeconomic models. In so doing we aim to dispel the myth that micro-based research is solely focused on the details of...

This article summarizes exchange-rate research using microstructure models. It first lays out the key features of the foreign exchange market and describes how they are incorporated into a canonical model of currency trading. The empirical implications of the model are then examined. The article...