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Prefetching is a simple and general method for single-chain parallelisation of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm based … on the idea of evaluating the posterior in parallel and ahead of time. Improved Metropolis-Hastings prefetching … states of the chain and increase the efficiency of prefetching considerably. The optimal acceptance rate for the prefetching …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003779724
A new algorithm for calibrating agent-based models is proposed, which employs a popular gradient boosting framework. Machine learning techniques are not used to develop a surrogate model, but rather assist in narrowing down the parameter space during the search for optimal parameters. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839291
We introduce the market resources method (MRM) for solving dynamic optimization problems. MRM extends Carroll’s (2006) endogenous grid point method (EGM) for problems with more than one control variable using policy function iteration. The MRM algorithm is simple to implement and provides...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509578
This note is intended to demonstrate that median (a well-known measure of central tendency) is a weighted arithmetic mean of all sample observations and such (non-trivial) weights may be computed by an optimization method such as the host-parasite co-evolutionary algorithm
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014037959
Estimation and modelling problems as they arise in many fields often turn out to be intractable by standard numerical methods. One way to deal with such a situation consists in simplifying models and procedures. However, the solutions to these simplified problems might not be satisfying. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003961503
We propose a new methodology to estimate the empirical pricing kernel implied from option data. In contrast to most of the studies in the literature that use an indirect approach, i.e. first estimating the physical and risk-neutral densities and obtaining the pricing kernel in a second step, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108080
In the economics of joint production one often distinguishes between the two cases: the one in which a firm produces multiple products each produced under separate production process, and the other "true joint production" where a number of outputs are produced from a single production process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048371
A new technique is devised to mitigate the errors-in-variables bias in linear regression. The procedure mimics a 2-stage least squares procedure where an auxiliary regression which generates a better behaved predictor variable is derived. The generated variable is then used as a substitute for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014102272
The well-known SETAR model introduced by Tong belongs to the wide class of TAR models that may be specified in several different ways. Here we propose to consider the delay parameter as endogenous, that is we make it to depend on both the past value and the specific past regime of the series. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111893
The rapid development of artificial intelligence methods contributes to their wide applications for forecasting various financial risks in recent years. This study introduces a novel explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) approach without a requirement of rich expertise in financial risk....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584957