A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms...

A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms...

This paper examines the flow of production and use of economic information and analyzes the effects of measurement errors, particularly as transmitted through expectations and forecasts. Economic data are subject to a variety of errors, and the uncertainty about economic measures tends to...

Business cycles and growth cycles should not be mixed or confused, as is unfortunately often the case in discussions of economic growth. This paper compares various approaches to time series decomposition for the analysis of business cycles and growth cycles as related but separate phenomena. We...