In the first paper we give a holistic overview and comparison of all risk elicitation methods used today, and recommend …

policy. A critical dimension to poverty dynamics is vulnerability which conceptually pertains to the risk of future poverty …The reduction of poverty is at the heart of the development agenda both nationally and globally. This is reflected in … the measurement of poverty is ex post and thus, public interventions are directed at helping those who have been …

We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and … high mobility in and out of poverty. …

household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The results indicate that vulnerability is very sensitive to the time …