reducing the poverty rate by almost one percentage point more, a 75 percent increase over the survey estimate. …

We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by … to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty …. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a …

A key question in the design of anti-poverty programs is to what extent they should be targeted. Empirical evaluations … based on an imperfect poverty classifier based on proxy means tests results in very distinct 'optimal' beneficiary shares … when these measures are used as a decision criterion. Implications from poverty simulations are sensitive to assumptions …