We present evidence that event studies can help antitrust agencies forecast impacts of mergers on innovation. In large pharmaceutical mergers, cumulative abnormal returns on portfolios of rivals predict post-merger changes in the combined firm's R&D intensity. More favorable impacts on rivals...

Previous work on exit in declining industries has neglected mergers. We examine a simple model that predicts which declining industries experience horizontal mergers. Mergers are more likely if 1) market concentration is high; 2) the inverse demand curve is steep at high levels of output and...