We develop indices of Twitter-based Chinese Climate Uncertainty (TC-CU) and Climate Policy Uncertainty (TC-CPU). Our …, among many others. We find that TC-CPU is associated with future US climate uncertainty and attention measures while US …

Uncertainty shapes the trajectory of business cycles and remains a central research topic in Macroeconomics. When … studying the impact of uncertainty on the economy, economists use different uncertainty measures. While all indicators … approximate uncertainty along some certain dimension, none of the indicators directly captures Knightian Uncertainty. According to …

riskiness to continuous random variables. For many continuous random variables, the risk measure is equal to the worst-case risk … measure, i.e. the maximal possible loss incurred by that gamble. We also extend the Foster-Hart risk measure to dynamic …

This paper provides a new index of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of … uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The index measures the dispersion of forecasts resulting from … parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Over the period 2000Q1-2019Q4, global macroeconomic uncertainty is highly correlated with …

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of … uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from … parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on the error correction representation of the model, we distinguish between measures …

Macroeconomic uncertainty consists of three components: the unobservable, the heterogeneous and the "uncertain". We are … unaware of exactly when economic agents perceive uncertainty and which type of uncertainty interests them. This paper … uncertainty related queries" for both the USA and Italy. We show that the EURQ encapsulates agents’ need to gather more …

We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical … tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after … geopolitical risk leads to a decline in real activity, lower stock returns, and movements in capital flows away from emerging …

The preliminary evidence in the literature suggests that changes in uncertainty have a role in shaping the U ….S. economic cycle. But what is effectively measured by the different available indicators of uncertainty still remains an … "uncertain" issue. This paper has two aims: (i) to introduce a new uncertainty indicator (GT) based on Internet searches; and (ii …

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of … uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from … parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on the error correction representation of the model, we distinguish between measures …

Knightian Uncertainty represents a situation in which it is no longer possible to form expectations about future events …. We propose the first method to directly measure Knightian Uncertainty. Our approach relies on firm-level data and … Uncertainty indicator for Switzerland and show that the indicator is able to identify times of high uncertainty and detects …