We draw a straight line connecting financial shocks, capital investment decisions by firms, and change in measured aggregate productivity using a dynamic general equilibrium model. Data shows that post the 2008 crisis, firms changed their allocation between assets of varying depreciation rates...

We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure can be tailored to the forecast horizons of interest, and it allows for general loss functions, univariate or...