, practitioners and researchers. However, little attention has been paid to the predictability of their risk measures. In this paper …, we compare the predictability of the one-step-ahead volatility and Value-at-Risk of Bitcoin using several volatility … models. We also include procedures that take into account the presence of outliers and estimate the volatility and Value-at-Risk …

In this study we consider the risk estimation as a stochastic process based on the Sample Quantile Process (SQP …) - which is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk calculated on a rolling sample. Using SQP's, we are able to show and quantify … the pro-cyclicality of the current way financial institutions measure their risk. Analysing 11 stock indices, we show that …

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not … only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only … risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms for the Choquet expected utility and the statistical property of …

The present study aims at modelling market risk for four commodities, namely West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil …, natural gas, gold and corn for the period 2007-2017. To this purpose, we use Extreme Value Theory (EVT) together with a set of … Conditional Auto-Regressive Logit (CARL) models to predict risk measures for the futures return series of the considered …