Similar Search Results

Far from the madding crowd : collective wisdom in prediction markets

Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele - 2016

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011446471

Far from the madding crowd : collective wisdom in prediction markets

Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, D. - In: Quantitative finance 19 (2019) 9, pp. 1461-1471

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012194798

Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme

Baron, Jonathan; Mellers, Barbara A.; Tetlock, Philip E.; … - In: Decision analysis : a journal of the Institute for … 11 (2014) 2, pp. 133-145

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382759

Hidden experts in the crowd : using meta-predictions to leverage expertise in single-question prediction problems

Wilkening, Tom; Martinie, Marcellin; Howe, Piers D. L. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 68 (2022) 1, pp. 487-508

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012821209

Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data : the 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections

Franch, Fabio - In: Technological forecasting & social change : an … 166 (2021), pp. 1-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012693495

The contingent wisdom of dyads : when discussion enhances vs. undermines the accuracy of collaborative judgments

Minson, Julia A.; Mueller, Jennifer S.; Larrick, Richard P. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 64 (2018) 9, pp. 4177-4192

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011921508

Extracting the wisdom of crowds when information is shared

Palley, Asa B.; Soll, Jack B. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 65 (2019) 5, pp. 2291-2309

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039760

Boosting the wisdom of crowds within a single judgment problem : weighted averaging based on peer predictions

Palley, Asa B.; Satopää, Ville A. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 69 (2023) 9, pp. 5128-5146

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014392893

Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples: A comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Marewski, Julian N. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 6 (2011) 1, pp. 73-88

We investigated the extent to which the human capacity for recognition helps to forecast political elections: We compared naive recognition-based election forecasts computed from convenience samples of citizens' recognition of party names to (i) standard polling forecasts computed from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008835323

Prediction Markets versus Alternative Methods. Empirical Tests of Accuracy and Acceptability

Graefe, Andreas - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009434635

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last