In this paper we apply statistical inference techniques to build neural network models which are able to explain the prices of call options written on the German stock index DAX. By testing for the explanatory power of several input variables serving as network inputs, some insight into the...

In this article we examine how model selection in neural networks can be guided by statistical procedures such as hypotheses tests, information criteria and cross validation. The application of these methods in neural network models is discussed, paying attention especially to the identification...

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...

In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro...

This paper addresses whether and to what extent econometric methods used in experimental studies can be adapted and applied to financial data to detect the best-fitting preference model. To address the research ques- tion, we implement a frequently used nonlinear probit model in the style of Hey...

This paper investigates a comprehensive assessment of firm strategic behavior under financial market uncertainty. A general theoretical model of market value maximization (MVM) is constructed using a traditional capital asset pricing format. The model built on the nonlinear Almost Ideal Demand...

We take as a starting point the existence of a joint distribution implied by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, all of which are potentially misspecified. Our objective is to compare "true" joint distributions with ones generated by given DSGEs. This is accomplished...

This dissertation consists of five independent projects. In each project, a novelstatistical method was developed to address a practical problem encountered in genomiccontexts. For example, we considered testing for constant nonparametric effectsin a general semiparametric regression model in...

An important challenge in statistical modeling involves determining an appropriate structural form for a model to be used in making inferences and predictions. Missing data is a very common occurrence in most research settings and can easily complicate the model selection problem. Many useful...