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Baseline assumptions play a crucial role in conducting consistent quantitative policy assessments for dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Two essential factors that influence the determination of the baselines are the data sources of projections and the applied calibration...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015193609
In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method dealing with model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for different types of spatial links. We contribute to existing methods that handle spatial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370077
Climate change has become one of the most prominent concerns globally. In this paper, we study the transition risk of greenhouse gas emission reduction in structural environmental-macroeconomic DSGE models. First, we analyze the uncertainty in model prediction on the effect of unanticipated and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305044
In this paper, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath et al. (Econometrica 60(1):77–105, 1992) under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian motion. The G-Brownian motion represents the uncertainty about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501734
We study continuous-time consumption and portfolio choice in the presence of Knightian uncertainty about interest rates. We develop the stochastic model that involves singular priors and analyze optimal behavior. When there is sufficiently large uncertainty about interest rates, the agent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014503877
This dissertation focuses on monetary policy rules in the OECD countries at both theoretical and empirical levels. It is divided into seven chapters.Chapter 1 presents some recent literature on monetary policy rules and introduces the goal and organization of this dissertation.Chapter 2 explores...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009452583
Ambiguity, also called Knightian or model uncertainty, is a key feature in financial modeling. A recent paper by Maccheroni et al. (2004) characterizes investor preferences under aversion against both risk and ambiguity. Their result shows that these preferences can be numerically represented in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263608
We use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to evaluate the robustness of determinants of economic growth in a new dataset of 255 European regions in the 1995-2005 period. We use three different specifications based on (1) the cross-section of regions, (2) the cross-section of regions with country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264534