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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399615
wide application of these methods as a "credibility revolution" in econometrics that has finally provided persuasive … crisis in econometrics. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602961
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299251
-proof approach as much as possible, and emphasizes the practical application of econometrics. They show with examples how to … find the book useful. “How to best start learning time series econometrics? Learning by doing. This is the ethos of this …, no-nonsense, practical approach that students will love when they start learning time series econometrics. I recommend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014443465
Commodity markets present several challenges for quantitative modeling. These include high volatilities, small sample data sets, and physical, operational complexity. In addition, the set of traded products in commodity markets is more limited than in financial or equity markets, making value...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306581
We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604656
We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282832
We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282872
This paper proposes a procedure to investigate the nature and persistence of the forces governing the yield curve and to use the extracted information for forecasting purposes. The latent factors of a model of the Nelson-Siegel type are directly linked to the maturity of the yields through the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604963
Estimated dynamic stochastic equilibrium (DSGE) models are now widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics as well as for quantitative policy analysis and forecasting at central banks around the world. This paper reviews recent advances in the estimation and evaluation of DSGE models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014186380