We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...

We explore Knightian model uncertainty as an explanation for the observed excess persistence and attenuation in estimated interest-rate reaction functions for the United States, relative to what optimal feedback rules would suggest. Two types of uncertainty are identified: (i) unstructured model...

In this paper, we present our study on using the hybrid stochastic-local volatility (SLV) model for option pricing. The SLV model contains a stochastic volatility component represented by a volatility process and a local volatility component represented by a so-called leverage function. The...

In his 1999 monograph The Conquest of American Inflation Tom Sargent describes how a policymaker, who applies a constant-gain algorithm in estimating the Phillips curve, can fall into the grip of an induction problem: concluding on the basis of reduced-form evidence that the trade-off between...

This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy. We focus on two types of uncertainty: (i) unstructured model uncertainty reflected in additive...

In an environment where economic structures break, variances change, distributions shift, conventional policies weaken and past events tend to reoccur, economic agents have to form expectations over different regimes. This makes the regime-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium...

We introduce a new approach for modelling risk dependence. The methods we describe are applicable to all risk types but are motivated by a need to robustly assess the dependence between operational and other risks such as market and credit.We show through a practical example how the technique...

This paper provides a framework for comparing a defined benefit (DB) and a defined contribution (DC) point schemes, which are both pay-as-you go (PAYG) financed. Two stylised PAYG pension schemes are modelled and simulated to compare their robustness to shocks. The same demographic developments...

Both mathematical modelling and simulation methods in general have contributed greatly to understanding, insight and forecasting in many fields including macroeconomics. Never-theless, we must remain careful to distinguish model-land and model-land quantities from the real world. Decisions taken...

Both mathematical modelling and simulation methods in general have contributed greatly to understanding, insight and forecasting in many fields including macroeconomics. Nevertheless, we must remain careful to distinguish model-land and model-land quantities from the real world. Decisions taken...