Showing 1 - 10 of 227
We provide a methodology for testing a polynomial model hypothesis by extending the approach and results of Baek, Cho, and Phillips (2015; Journal of Econometrics; BCP) that tests for neglected nonlinearity using power transforms of regressors against arbitrary nonlinearity. We examine and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014123918
The paper proposes a new algorithm for finding the confidence set of a collection of forecasts or prediction models. Existing numerical implementations for finding the confidence set use an elimination approach where one starts with the full collection of models and successively eliminates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342917
Allowing for misspecification in the linear conditional quantile function, this paper provides a new interpretation and the semiparametric efficiency bound for the quantile regression parameter β ( τ ) in Koenker and Bassett (1978). The first result on interpretation shows that under a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411323
In the causal inference literature a class of semi-parametric estimators is called robust if the estimator has desirable properties under the assumption that at least one of the working models is correctly specified. A standard example is a doubly robust estimator that specifies parametric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011796394
Generalized Information Matrix Tests (GIMTs) have recently been used for detecting the presence of misspecification in regression models in both randomized controlled trials and observational studies. In this paper, a unified GIMT framework is developed for the purpose of identifying,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011650480
A decision maker is averse to not knowing a prior over a set of restricted structured models (ambiguity) and suspects that each structured model is misspecified. The decision maker evaluates intertemporal plans under all of the structured models and, to recognize possible misspecifications,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850959
Agent-Based Models (ABMs) provide powerful tools for economic analysis, capturing microto-macro interactions and emergent properties. However, integration with empirical data has been a persistent challenge. To address it, we propose a protocol for integration between empirical data and ABM,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015396020
Economic theories are often fitted directly to data to avoid possible model selection biases. We show that embedding a theory model that specifies the correct set of m relevant exogenous variables, x{t}, within the larger set of m k candidate variables, (x{t},w{t}), then selection over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014176132
This note demonstrates that in applied regression analysis, the variance of a coefficient of interest may decrease from the inclusion of a control variable, contrasting with Clarke’s assertion (2005, 2009) that the variance can only increase or stay the same. Practitioners may thus be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177659
I survey and discuss the recent literature on testing experts or probabilistic forecasts, which I would describe as a literature on “strategic hypothesis testing” The starting point of this literature is some surprising results of the following type: suppose that a criterion forjudging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014025441