Showing 1 - 10 of 10
We consider the nonstationary fractional model Delta^d Xt = epsilon t with epsilon t i.i.d.(0;sigma^2) and d 1/2. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of d conditional on initial values, and we discuss the role of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097996
We develop a Cp statistic for the selection of regression models with stationary and nonstationary ARIMA error term. We derive the asymptotic theory of the maximum likelihood estimators and show they are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian. We also prove that the distribution of the sum of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097998
Yule (1926) introduced the concept of spurious or nonsense correlation, and showed by simulation that for some nonstationary processes, that the empirical correlations seem not to converge in probability even if the processes were indpendent. This was later discussed by Granger and Newbold...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012723932
We derive the optimal hedging ratios for a portfolio of assets driven by a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model (CVAR) with general cointegration rank. Our hedge is optimal in the sense of minimum variance portfolio.We consider a model that allows for the hedges to be cointegrated with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045676
Economic theories are often fitted directly to data to avoid possible model selection biases. We show that embedding a theory model that specifies the correct set of m relevant exogenous variables, x{t}, within the larger set of m k candidate variables, (x{t},w{t}), then selection over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014176132
This paper discusses model based inference in an autoregressive model for fractional processes based on the Gaussian likelihood. We consider the likelihood and its derivatives as stochastic processes in the parameters, and prove that they converge in distribution when the errors are i.i.d. with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014217069
An analysis of some identification problems in the cointegrated VAR is given. We give a new criteria for identification by linear restrictions on individual relations which is equivalent to the rank condition. We compare the asymptotic distribution of the estimators of alpha and beta when they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014217070
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807442
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011524568
We propose a method to explore the causal transmission of an intervention through two endogenous variables of interest. We refer to the intervention as a catalyst variable. The method is based on the reduced-form system formed from the conditional distribution of the two endogenous variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013355236