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, and Small (2005). The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted …This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now … from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827105
and Small, 2005. The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted …This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now … from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124140
This paper presents three local nonparametric forecasting methods that are able to utilize the isolated periods of … opposed to chronological time. The most efficient nonparametric forecasting method is the third model, which uses the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009360270
process is to use timely monthly information in order to nowcast key economic variables, such as e.g. GDP, that are typically … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640507
Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340981
information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420978
Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404156
information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412468
This paper analyses the forecasting performance of monetary policy reaction functions using U.S. Federal Reserve … forecasting purposes. Overall, evidence suggests that U.S. monetary policy behaviour between1987-2012 is nonlinear. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012254878
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422086