Current account imbalances have been a decisive feature of the European banking and sovereign debt crisis. This paper investigates the drivers of euro area current accounts, their divergence and subsequent rebalancing, within a structural model accommodating potential regime changes at the...

The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This macro-foundedʺ measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. -- Inflation and prices

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...