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We develop a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents use simple but biased rules to forecast future output and inflation. This model generates endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism ("Animal Spiritsʺ) that are generated by the correlation of biased beliefs. We contrast the dynamics...
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This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
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We develop a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents use simple but biased rules to forecast future output and inflation. This model generates endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (quot;Animal Spiritsquot;) that are generated by the correlation of biased beliefs. We contrast the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753435
and sunspots by establishing the existence of "statistical sunspots" in models that have a unique rational expectations … factors (e.g., sunspots, judgment, expectations shocks, etc.). In equilibrium, agents attribute, in a self‐fulfilling way …, some of the serial correlation observed in data to extrinsic noise, i.e., statistical sunspots. This leads to sunspot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806933