Has the Federal Open Market Committee's policy rule changed in recent years? This is difficult to answer given the zero lower bound environment for the federal funds rate throughout late 2008 to 2015. This paper addresses the problem using policymakers' projections for the near horizon from 2012...

This paper identifies zero lower bound risk as key rationale for a monetary policymaker to actively manage the size and composition of its holdings of domestic debt. This is true at all times, including when the zero lower bound does not currently bind. It then provides a simple, optimal rule...