This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific...

We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence - contemporaneously and with a lag - the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm...

The zero lower bound and quantitative easing policies have rekindled interest in the link between monetary aggregates and the business cycle. This paper argues, on the basis of Bayesian time-varying coefficient VAR models that use Divisia indexes, that money is more closely linked to the...