This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in...

In this paper we construct model-free and model-based indicators for the inflation risk premium in the US and the euro area. We study the impact of market liquidity, surprises from inflation data releases, inflation volatility and deflation fears on the inflation risk premium. For our analysis,...

In implementing its monetary policy, the ECB conducts collateralised credit operations with banks. The bulk of the financial risks involved in these collateralised credit operations are mitigated primarily by the valuation haircuts imposed on the mobilised collateral. Since the establishment of...

This paper studies bank loan pricing in the euro area over the period October 2008 to October 2014. This period was characterised by market fragmentation and extended liquidity provision by the ECB. For our analysis we develop a theoretical framework which accounts for the main financing risks...

The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal stemming from money. The spectral analysis of time series...