Why is an inverted yield-curve slope such a powerful predictor of future recessions? We show that a decomposition of the yield curve slope into its expectations and risk premia components helps disentangle the channels that connect fluctuations in Treasury rates and the future state of the...

Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance is...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

In an attempt to predict a peak in the U.S. economy using a classical statistical decision methodology and a Bayesian methodology and using the 1996 revised composite leading economic indicators, it is learned that the Bayesian models have generally outperformed the classical statistical ones...

This book discusses recent developments in theoretical and empirical business cycle analysis, identifying possible applications of sophisticated tools by private and public institutions involved in the analysis of economic fluctuations and facilitating interaction between academics, researchers...

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the...

The aim of this paper is to study how macroeconomic impulses can affect the term structure during the Great Moderation. As novelty in the research strategy, we create a term-structure using three latent factors of the yield curve. A Nelson-Siegel Model is implemented to estimate the latent...