Using a structural VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility on post-WWII U.S. data, we document a striking negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the monetary rule and the evolution of the persistence and predictability of...

This paper offers a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to policy evaluation in rational expectation models. First, we show how to correctly assess and rank simple policy rules under the welfare loss minimization criterion in the presence of uncertainty about the model’s structural...

This article presents a dynamic stochastic new Keynesian model with real balance effects. I find a number of results that would not appear in the traditional framework. It is shown that the real balance effect makes the so-called Taylor principle not necessary for determinacy of rational...