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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013359928
In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the US economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394233
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The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726321
In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy. We make use of a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models: the Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005) model, the Smets and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688516
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963107
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009523377
compare the midpoint of the ranges with the realized outcome. This paper proposes a new approach to forecast evaluation that … takes account of the interval nature of projections. It is shown that using the conventional Mincer-Zarnowitz approach to … relevant for explaining future inflation than information embodied in the midpoint. -- Forecast evaluation ; interval data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009534105