It is well-known that interest rates are extremely persistent, yet they are best modeled and understood as stationary processes. These properties are contradictory in the workhorse Gaussian affine term structure model in which persistent data often result in unit roots that imply...

Recent developments in inflation and M3 velocity in the euro area have raised serious doubts about the reliability of M3 growth as a pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. We develop a very flexible and comprehensive state-space framework for modeling the velocity of circulation. Our...