In this paper, we study the effects of US target rate changes and related communications by members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on spreads for emerging market sovereign credit default swaps (CDS). Using GARCH models, we find that during the pre-financial crisis sub-sample (April...

This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...

This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...

Using data from 40 nations, we obtain new stylized facts regarding the impact of political leanings of the ruling government on sovereign debt yields and fiscal policy. Left-wing governments' yields are 166 basis points higher and 23% more volatile than yields of right-wing governments....

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses triggered a historically large wave of capital reallocation between markets, asset classes, and industries. Using high-frequency country-level data, we examine if and how the number of infections, the stringency of the lockdown, and the...

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses triggered a historically large wave of capital reallocation between markets and asset classes. Using high-frequency country-level data, this paper examines if and how the number of COVID cases, the stringency of the lockdown, and the fiscal...