Monetary Conditions Indices (MCIs) are weighted averages of changes in an interest rate and an exchange rate relative to their values in a base period. A few central banks calculate MCIs for use in monetary policy. Although the Bank of England does not calculate such an index, several...

We extend the work done in our “Redux” paper from Oct 2011 to find a weighted composite U.S coincident economic index (CEI) that includes non-zero weightings from all 50 states and when used in a standard Probit model, produces a perfect correlation (R2 of 1) to NBER recession dating. We...