This paper presents forecasts of currency in circulation prepared for liquidity management at the Central Bank of Nigeria. Forecasts were produced using ARIMA, ARIMA with structural variables, VAR and VEC models. The performance of the forecasts was then evaluated under a rolling forecast...

One of the most significant factors which influences the level of banking sector liquidity is Currency in Circulation. Although the central bank is in charge of distribution of the currency it can't assess the demand for the currency, as that demand is generated by the customers of commercial...

The elimination of large-denomination banknotes is one of several options to relax the effective-lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates. We explore timing issues associated with the calling-in of large notes from a central banker's perspective and employ an optimal stopping model to...