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Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course … recessions in the post-World War Two period. The spread also predicts future real GDP growth for the US, although the forecast …
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We present a Simple SIR Macro Model to study the economic impact of an epidemic in a model were agent types are unobservable. We solve for the decentralized economy equilibrium and for optimal solution (subject to the constraint that the planner cannot differentiate between agent types). We find...
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