Using an event-study design, we investigate monetary policy interest-rate-to-performance sensitivity of the European banking sector over the 07/2012-06/2017 period when interest rates were (close to) zero. We apply the Wordscores approach to introductory statements of ECB's Governing Council...

We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and financial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with...

Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate...