This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary normalisation on sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific. We apply the quantile vector autoregressive model with principal component analysis to the assessment of tail risk of sovereign debt, which may not be detectable using traditional...

In this paper, we model the policy stance of the People¡¦s Bank of China (PBoC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a...

Using a non-Gaussian affine term-structure model, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of the date-based forward guidance at the zero lower bound. The model extracts the expected dynamics of two state variables (the short-term interest rate and its mean) embedded in the entire Treasury yield...